Analysis: Florida’s $1.76T economy on sustainable tract next decade

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(The Center Square) – Sustainable growth, slower than recent highs coming from the pandemic, is forecast for the $1.76 trillion Florida economy in the next 10 years.

In areas that have surged to begin this decade, a more moderate rate is expected for population growth, economic output and tourism.

“Overall, Florida’s economy is transitioning to a more stable growth phase,” says the report from Florida TaxWatch, an independent nonpartisan, nonprofit taxpayer research institute. “The findings suggest that while the boom of the post-pandemic years is easing, the state’s economic foundations remain solid, mirroring broader national trends.”

"Florida Economic Forecast 2025-2034" projects income growth to eclipse the national average in the coming years. A dip in tourism for 2025 is expected to position the state to have “more standard, prepandemic growth trajectory” in the following years.

“While Florida’s population will continue to grow, daily net migration is expected to decrease from 891 in 2025 to 705 by 2034, reflecting a cooling growth rate,” TaxWatch says. “The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to a peak of 4.5% in 2027 before gradually declining to 4% by 2034. Florida’s real GDP growth is forecast at 2.4% for 2025 but is expected to slow to 1.2% by 2034 as the economy normalizes.”